Don't fix what isn't broken In An Economy

We have an economy marked by faltering growth and mass unemployment. ¾ of Kenyan youths  are looking for full-time work. Poverty is rising. Companies are sitting on cash, unwilling to hire with no customers in sight. Families are  reeling from the loss of in savings and rising rents. Rising trade deficits sap job growth. There are only four sources of demand in the economy—consumers, business, exports and government. With the first three nearly comatose, the fourth must act.

Everyone agrees that we have an decrepit and aging infrastructure. Leaking sewers, falling bridges, shorted train stations, schools dangerous to the health of the children—we suffer it all around us. Much was built in the 1930s-1980s or earlier and has simply has worn out. There will never be a better opportunity to rebuild. Construction workers are idled and in need of work. Government can borrow at near record low interest rates. Anyone with a whit of business sense would see this is an extraordinary opportunity to rebuild Kenya with the passage of a new constitution which is investment friendly.

            But it is critical to focus on what is broken and not on what works. We do not have an "entitlements crisis" despite all blather to the contrary. We have a broken health care system. Virtually the entire terrifying long term debt projections come from soaring health care costs(HIV/AIDS,TB,Malaria drugs etc). If we spent what the Europeans spend per capita on health care (with better health care results), we would project surpluses as far as the eye can see right now. Fix health care, and you fix any long term debt concerns. Fail to fix health care, and you can sack the government, we'll still go bankrupt in debts.

Social Security, on the other hand, isn't broken. It hasn't contributed to the deficits—in fact, it has amassed billions in surpluses to prepay for Atwolis men retirement. 

None of this is radical. Even the market fundamentalists at the IMF are warning East Africa against a premature turn to deficit reduction. Any honest investor would agree that this is a great opportunity to rebuild Kenya. No one with any familiarity with the Treasury  budget would disagree that it is health care costs that drive long-term deficits and terrifying debt projections.

With the renewed  optimism for Kenyans, the  belief that we can forge our own future. Have we become so timid or confused that we will now lower our sights, concentrate on balancing our books, and forgo making the reforms vital to creating an economy the works?, only forecasting on the new political dispensation at the county governments?,  I don't think so. It is a measure of how distorted our political debate has become that common sense is so so rare. We must all forge a new Kenya and ensure that common economic sense should not be uncommon.