Greed to amass more wealth through counties

 We should be careful on who we elect as our  Governors and Senators. The mad rush by current MPs, former MPs and Ministers to abandon  MPship and turn to the counties is borne out of greed to control and amass more wealth through the counties' Ksh.1.5-2 billion budget. the future MPs can be left to eat the CDF money which is only 7% of the national budget. With less opportunity to eat through the Parliamentary Service Commission, which MPs controlled and increased their salaries at will, our current leaders and former eaters are dying to be Governors and Senators. What Kenyans need to do is  not to elect people who have been MPs/ Ministers before. We look for a new generation of leaders, not recycled old and tired fellows. There is however no guarantee that the new generation will not be as greedy as the old. But what can we do.

The Constitutional Referendum was rigged

How can you explain a situation where you are sure you voted a NO in  a polling station and your view is not factored in the final tally or Turns out a YES???,there might be ‘errors’ in a system but why the duplication of my case in other different stations all over the country??

                 We were  duped into signing into law a constitution that protects the existing politicians and their cronies, but made to believe that the  citizens spoke. They will soon take up all the major seats in the counties  and the national government using the same old methods, and wananchi will be  made to feel it is right. For now, there is very little to do because all  the windows of intervention are already closed. However, there is only one  small opening left. This is the opportunity for we as professionals to immediately vie for all the positions of leadership and ensure that none of  the current leaders goes back into government. It is hard to do because they  are still the ones implementing the constitution, since we trusted them  with the task. However, we can try. Do not expect fair elections in 2012 or whenever they happen next, if the  same leaders we have now remain in power. Since most of you were not open to contrary opinion, it was hard for me to discuss in this forum how the  referendum was rigged. Some of you are so blind as to think that electronic  voting is devoid of rigging. As a matter of fact, it is the easiest to rig. My point, though, is that the IIEC is not to be trusted to conduct any more  elections. It is constituted as is for a reason and is too protected for audit. Most crucially, brothers and sisters, please ensure that someone (especially you computer experts and university students) query and audit  how the tallying was done. You will be shocked. If you still doubt, just  check what has happened to other countries that have used electronic  tallying in elections. You will remember me one day. Please stick close to the lawyers and look for every opportunity to work  with them on dealing with blatant impunity even within the implementation  process. Note that most of the leaders know they may be going home. In the real sense of the term, this is really their "turn to eat." In a  sense, this implementation process is really the most dangerous in the whole  transition, because laws will be abused given the chasm between the old and  the new dispensations. Just like Raila was sworn in at the promulgation of a  constitution that has no prime minister's post, anything may be defended and  justified. This transitional point between the two dispensations is partly  what made it possible for El Bashir to be sneaked in and out of Kenya with  the belief that everyone is too excited to think that there can be mischief not to mention the two insensitive appointments of the CID boss and   the NACADA chairman(refer to the past blog) . We  have made this government believe that it is popular in that it has  delivered a constitution that evaded us  for many years, and that we can trust it. The 27th as a date of promulgation was wrong, but none wanted to hear a contrary opinion. All we wanted was the promulgation. Now, you will see and hear things that will shock you and make you realize that  this was not the will of Kenyans; things will unfold before your very eyes(The provincial admistration debate for example), but it may be a little late. The only remedy is  to  stick with one another and work very closely  with lawyers, since we do not want the voice of the clergy. 

Don't fix what isn't broken In An Economy

We have an economy marked by faltering growth and mass unemployment. ¾ of Kenyan youths  are looking for full-time work. Poverty is rising. Companies are sitting on cash, unwilling to hire with no customers in sight. Families are  reeling from the loss of in savings and rising rents. Rising trade deficits sap job growth. There are only four sources of demand in the economy—consumers, business, exports and government. With the first three nearly comatose, the fourth must act.

Everyone agrees that we have an decrepit and aging infrastructure. Leaking sewers, falling bridges, shorted train stations, schools dangerous to the health of the children—we suffer it all around us. Much was built in the 1930s-1980s or earlier and has simply has worn out. There will never be a better opportunity to rebuild. Construction workers are idled and in need of work. Government can borrow at near record low interest rates. Anyone with a whit of business sense would see this is an extraordinary opportunity to rebuild Kenya with the passage of a new constitution which is investment friendly.

            But it is critical to focus on what is broken and not on what works. We do not have an "entitlements crisis" despite all blather to the contrary. We have a broken health care system. Virtually the entire terrifying long term debt projections come from soaring health care costs(HIV/AIDS,TB,Malaria drugs etc). If we spent what the Europeans spend per capita on health care (with better health care results), we would project surpluses as far as the eye can see right now. Fix health care, and you fix any long term debt concerns. Fail to fix health care, and you can sack the government, we'll still go bankrupt in debts.

Social Security, on the other hand, isn't broken. It hasn't contributed to the deficits—in fact, it has amassed billions in surpluses to prepay for Atwolis men retirement. 

None of this is radical. Even the market fundamentalists at the IMF are warning East Africa against a premature turn to deficit reduction. Any honest investor would agree that this is a great opportunity to rebuild Kenya. No one with any familiarity with the Treasury  budget would disagree that it is health care costs that drive long-term deficits and terrifying debt projections.

With the renewed  optimism for Kenyans, the  belief that we can forge our own future. Have we become so timid or confused that we will now lower our sights, concentrate on balancing our books, and forgo making the reforms vital to creating an economy the works?, only forecasting on the new political dispensation at the county governments?,  I don't think so. It is a measure of how distorted our political debate has become that common sense is so so rare. We must all forge a new Kenya and ensure that common economic sense should not be uncommon.

Ecoke: Fiscal Balance path - A painful ‘Capsule’ For Pol...

Ecoke: Fiscal Balance path - A painful ‘Capsule’ For Pol...: "Wyclife kiprutoThere are two alternative paths to long-term fiscal balance in LDC’s, if MDGs and other long term economic goals are to be fe..."

Fiscal Balance path - A painful ‘Capsule’ For Policy makers

Wyclife kipruto

There are two alternative paths to long-term fiscal balance in LDC’s, if MDGs and other long term economic goals are to be feasible.
 
The less desirable path is austerity economics: government sharply cuts spending long before full employment is reached; production stagnates; revenues decline. We might reach budget balance but at a lower level of economic output, with increased taxes on working Kenyans and reduced public services.
 
The alternative high road path would increase public spending financed by deficits for a year or two, until unemployment is definitely on a downward trend and GDP is rising rapidly. We then collect more revenues from a stronger economy.  By identifying investments vital to our future, and paying for them with targeted spending cuts and progressive tax reforms, our country provides the basis for new private-sector investments that help fuel growth, generating greater revenues while reducing the deficit.  The benefit of this second path is that government moves towards a reduction in annual deficits and a lowering of the debt-to-GDP ratio, at a higher level of economic output, while building a new basis for long term prosperity.

We Are Humans Not Squirrels

If there are any animals that are lucky to be a live, then they must be squirrels. Every single day, I have witnessed some of them narrowly and miraculously missing death.  Where I live, there are so many of these squirrels. So every time I walk or drive around guess what I see! Squirrels everywhere; crossing the road, chasing each other or climbing the trees. These little creatures risk their lives by crossing busy roads. There are times that I have found myself closing my eyes or screaming at them to be careful. Not willing to kill them some motorists slow down or stop while others make it by God's grace. Whether these squirrels are able to think and make wise decisions, I do not know. What I do know is that there are many of us who ought to know better and yet every single day, we go about doing certain things that endanger our precious lives. How do you mean? 1.  Some young people  indulge in drinking alcohol that has been a killer drink. Many are they      who have fallen victims of alcoholic drinks. Many have lost their jobs and families, quit school, driver’s license confiscated, and some end up becoming homeless. 2.  Some have chosen to abuse drugs that have reduced them to zombies. 3. Some of us are not careful as regards what we consume. We eat anything, all the time, and   end up suffering due to our uncontrolled appetites. Lord have mercy! We need to remind ourselves that life is too precious to play around with. Let us avoid making unwise decisions that we will live to regret or that will shorten our life on earth

A Truly Rational Person Is An Economist

A recent episode of NBC’s 30 Rock provided a wonderful insight into thinking like an economist.

So yes, we economists always advocate for rationality, and that’s  thinking with your ‘HEART’

But by this, I  mean the acronym for:

Hard

Equations

And

Rational

Thinking.

A truly rational person wouldn’t be able to decide anyways – they’d get bogged down in multitudes of minor details, trapped in a spiral of intractable calculus, much like those with a damaged orbit frontal cortex.