Digressing from Economic writings to comment on the Kenyan politics, one of my former tutors once argued that you cannot separate Economics from Politics but the vice versa is incorrect..As someone once said; "It’s Politics, stupid!", so is the case of suspension of Hon. William Ruto and former Higher education minister from Cabinet. All indications are that Raila is taking the blame and credit (depending on where one stands). That means Raila will pay political price of that decision and also get political accolades for it. On balance, however, Ruto's suspension may as well mark the end of any hope that Raila and Ruto (Luos and Kalenjins) will form any alliance towards 2012.
Kalenjins knowing this to be a defining moment in their political future, word is that wide consultation is going on between the council of elders, MPs, businessmen, councillors and grassroots leaders on what to do next, with Ruto himself declaring today that an announcement on his next move will be made soon, and the added rider that his Presidential ambitions are very much intact. Indeed, Uhuru was at Ruto's Karen home yesterday at the head of a delegation of Central Kenya MPs to offer support, pointing to the high level scheming going on behind the scenes.
My bet is that Ruto will wait out the outcome of the appeal then quit ODM and parliament altogether to come back on a new party openly hostile to ODM in the august house , and as one of the Kalenjin MPs said today, the aim is to teach Raila a lesson.
Raila need to replace Kalenjin Bloc and that means trying to woo GEMA. The latter is a non-starter as the GEMANS believe they are the natural leaders of Kenya and have the numbers to go for it. Even if a GEMA Candidate is not on the Ballot, it’s unlikely they will vote for Raila, and not say, Kalonzo.
The upshot is that Raila should retire together with Kibaki or vie for Governorship of Nyanza. Presidency is surely becoming an elusive mirage to him ironically through his actions and omissions.
BTW: Ruto does not need Cabinet post to be relevant as he has a solid following, just like Raila or Kibaki never needed Cabinet posts in their Opposition years. I rest my case
whether you like it or not its a two horse race come 2012. The contenders are Martha Karua who shall win and Raila Amollo who shall be the runners up. THe election will be a run off as no candidate will gather the required majority in the first round.
ReplyDeleteThe few have their say i must say though in my honest opinion,the two will be political underdogs when it comes to 2012.I only see donkeys here and no real horse for that matter.@xris,where is the backing to reckon the force of the two in a kenyan context Considering the GEMA have their Horse?
ReplyDelete