Saturday, October 30, 2010

KENYAS’ DIASPORA ‘ELITES’ DUPED INTO SUPPORTING A DOCUMENT THAT BAR THEM FROM CONTESTING FOR PRESIDENCY IN THEIR MOTHER LAND

The constitution is passed and promulgamation was conducted. Diapora elites were grinning from chin to chin with a false hope that at long last they can go back home and change Kenya. Many hoped to presidents and others governors and senators. Change was in the air and those who dared question the validity and the mistakes on the constitution were branded pro Ruto or the enemy of the people. Many diaspora elites having failed to read the whole draft because of their so called "busy schedule" blindly followed their kings and said yes! yes! yes! katiba yes. While many of us were busy challenging the government on spelling errors, major mistakes in the constitution, wrong clauses and demanded an amendment before passage, many elites were spending most of their time writting articles on sections that supported the yes position while ignoring the position that concerned them. Indeed many were circulating petitions to shut us down. The elites hid their heads in big hats and immersed their bodies into long robes of academic achievements and consultancies that had to go with the offers of the time. It is amazing that even some thorough diasporans who have fought their way into institution of excellence discarded excellence for quick passage of dual citizenship that was absolutely meaningless. All they read in the constitution was Chapter 3 section 16 that state
" 16. A citizen by birth does not lose citizenship by acquiring the citizenship of another country."

It reminded me of the Nyayo era when everyone supported free school milk without knowing that the free milk was replacing the books and sending money into the pockets of those owning huge dairy farms. When will Kenyans learn to pay attention to details? It appears one can take a Kenyan out of Kenya but will never take Kenya out of us. We still support people or things blindly irrespective of our level of education or status in the society. We are still cows and not bulls when it comes to politics. The diaspora still follow sacred cows my friends. The diaspora in my opinion are still too naive to talk about leading anyone.

Simply put, the constitution allows for dual citizenship but bars everyone with a dual citizen status the chance to become a Kenyan government official. You cannot hold a public office if you are a citizen of Kenya by birth and a citizen of United States by marriage or whatever. If you doubt me then read the section below with emphasis on the red highlight.

Citizenship and leadership
78. (1) A person is not eligible for election or appointment to a State office unless the person is a citizen of Kenya.
(2) A State officer or a member of the defence forces shall not hold dual citizenship.
(3) Clauses (1) and (2) do not apply to—
(a) judges and members of commissions; or
(b) any person who has been made a citizen of another country by
operation of that country’s law, without ability to opt out.

Now it perplexes me that the diaspora did not read this. Now the diaspora elites are telling us that they are mad. They want the constitution to be amended to allow them to be government officials and the politicians are asking them, "do you have the votes to change even a sentence in the constitution". Indeed some politicians have openly told some diaspora beggars that they are "idiots". The diaspora were idiots in the 2007 election by supporting tribalism and they have turned out to be idiots in supporting a constitution that bars them from changing Kenya from within.

As we speak, the Kenyan politicians are very comfortable with many diasporans who could have had a very good shot at the presidency because many of them are citizens of other countries. No more Wajackoya, Matunda, Mwai, Mutua etc etc for president if they are US citizens. Indeed kiss goodbye to even being a technocrat because the current political class are very uneasy with the Diaspora. The clause above was meant to stop you diasporan and you never saw it coming. It stopped you on your tracks and you are left in the cold over what you have fought for over a decade. How did this happen? It is because of your lack of insight and blind following. It is your individualism and thrust of aligning yourself with people in positions of power. It is your ignorance about cunningness of career politicians. Shame on you.

Monday, October 25, 2010

Kenya’s economic growth is not organic; it is a byproduct of China

Listening to the wave of optimism sweeping through the African continent, one may think we have reached the end of the tunnel.
Last week, the World Bank predicted that the EAC region was set to grow by an average of five per cent over the next year. And who would blame the general public for believing the optimism, adjusted inflation figures that distort real living standards, an expansionary monetary policy, upward corrections in all the major financial markets, and a booming property industry are all positive signals for a change in our fortunes.
But this veil, displaying a new chapter in our economic history only serves to hide a distortion that is perpetuated by ill informed institutional leaders.
The economic gap that exists today between the rich world and Africa is alarming and has only been made more so to me, by the measures developed nations are taking to fix their deficits.
Fiscal consolidation, austerity measures, spending cuts, public wage freezes quantitative easing, tax increases, and double dip recession — these are the economic jargons that are setting the tone for dealing with a post recession world.
The question is what is the big deal?
Unemployment in the rich nations is only 10 per cent, inflation two to three per cent, zero interest rates, there is regulatory reform that is set to pave way for a more efficient rich world.
All this can only be good. But this is where the distortion lies. I recently came to learn that 2.2 million Kenyan citizens make NHIF contributions.
Now, assuming that these are compulsory deductions, it means that only 2.2 million out of a possible 20 million people are legally employed and making enough to make this contribution.
We are miles behind and instead of jolting our economic machine into action so we can move at an electrifying pace into the 21st century; we are content to paint a false picture of economic progress.
Unemployment is at 80 per cent, there are companies in this world, some unheard of that produce more than our national GDP.
Before the powers that be adjusted the way we calculate inflation, we averaged 15 – 20 per cent annually. This picture is not so rosy.
But let us cover ourselves in the veil of positive change for a second and look at why Africa is drawing so much attention.
China, wants more soft power by expanding her political support base on the international scene mainly through the General assembly.
She is hungry for natural resources to feed her double digit growth economy, and she wants to develop a market to export goods from her export led economy for the next 30 to 60 years.
Do not be surprised if after twenty something years, every consumable from undergarments to cars are made in China or even better made in Kenya by a Chinese company.
The point here is our growth is not organic, it is a byproduct of China’s involvement in our economy.
World markets have become saturated and Africa seems like a new place to go.
Returns from highly developed financial markets such as the UK, Japan, US and the Euro Zone are low because their respective governments are busy restructuring, banks have turned off their credit taps, individuals are reducing their debt obligations and companies are hoarding cash.
So it makes sense that Africa has gained some interest from our friends abroad but ironic that they are coming in droves, welcomed by us when we once labeled them neo cons.
I am not saying we are the subject of some post financial crises neo economic exploitation or we should turn our backs on the Middle Kingdom by all means.
Jambo, Karibu Kenya but take a moment and ponder.
Do we have deep fundamental economic issues?
Is all the urban infrastructural activity a good sign?
Are we employing the right economic tools?
Are we employing the right economic tools or structurally adjusting ourselves to fit in the rest of the puzzle that we call the World Economy?
My answer is whatever the case may be; if developed nations are ringing the alarm bell at 10 per cent unemployment and we are employing the same the economic practices that they do, then we should be running around in panic, or at least we should have been for the last 50 years.
I am not advocating a radical Keynesian intervention here, neither am I proposing austerity.
A holistic revision of our economic fundamentals is required and not through development economics theorized by World Bank experts but by Kenyans, by Africans, — an organic, home grown solution that will galvanize the African populace into action.
Economic aid is not going to have a miraculous multiplier effect that will eradicate poverty.
Focusing on Millennium Development Goals which at current rates seem almost unattainable will only misallocate and divert a pool of useful resources.
Red carpet treatment for China and other members of the BRIC fraternity will only make it more challenging to sustainably benefit from our own output in the future.
Paradoxically, all this attention makes this the time to set our own standards.
A high demographic dividend, abundant supply of raw materials like oil, a marginally growing middle class, the information age, a bleak future for the rich world, the list is endless.
The African Union should engage in some transformational paradigm shifting reassessment of the future.
Achieve this now and we cease to be peripheral but at the very heart of this evolving puzzle called the global economy

Thursday, October 21, 2010

Ruto Suspension: Raila’s Political Grave

Digressing from Economic writings to comment on the Kenyan politics, one of my former tutors once argued that you cannot separate Economics from Politics but the vice versa is incorrect..As someone once said; "It’s Politics, stupid!", so is the case of suspension of Hon. William Ruto and former Higher education minister from Cabinet. All indications are that Raila is taking the blame and credit (depending on where one stands). That means Raila will pay political price of that decision and also get political accolades for it. On balance, however, Ruto's suspension may as well mark the end of any hope that Raila and Ruto (Luos and Kalenjins) will form any alliance towards 2012.

Kalenjins knowing this to be a defining moment in their political future, word is that wide consultation is going on between the council of elders, MPs, businessmen, councillors and grassroots leaders on what to do next, with Ruto himself declaring today that an announcement on his next move will be made soon, and the added rider that his Presidential ambitions are very much intact. Indeed, Uhuru was at Ruto's Karen home yesterday at the head of a delegation of Central Kenya MPs to offer support, pointing to the high level scheming going on behind the scenes.
My bet is that Ruto will wait out the outcome of the appeal then quit ODM and parliament altogether to come back on a new party openly hostile to ODM in the august house , and as one of the Kalenjin MPs said today, the aim is to teach Raila a lesson.

Raila need to replace Kalenjin Bloc and that means trying to woo GEMA. The latter is a non-starter as the GEMANS believe they are the natural leaders of Kenya and have the numbers to go for it. Even if a GEMA Candidate is not on the Ballot, it’s unlikely they will vote for Raila, and not say, Kalonzo.

The upshot is that Raila should retire together with Kibaki or vie for Governorship of Nyanza. Presidency is surely becoming an elusive mirage to him ironically through his actions and omissions.

BTW: Ruto does not need Cabinet post to be relevant as he has a solid following, just like Raila or Kibaki never needed Cabinet posts in their Opposition years. I rest my case

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Weak spending by Kenyans a nightmare to policy makers.

Growth in consumption taxes lagged behind overall government revenue collection in the first three months of the financial year, indicating the economic recovery is yet to translate into increased personal incomes that can boost spending. In results released this month, the Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) reported an overall 13.2 per cent increase in revenue collection between comparative months of July and September 2010, but Value Added Tax- which is used as a proxy for measuring consumption patterns in the economy- grew at a slower pace of 2.5 per cent.KRA said in a statement that the Sh16.4 billion overall growth in revenues to Sh140.4 billion in the first quarter of the year was powered by improved performance in agriculture, construction, manufacturing and financial sectors of the economy.
As an Economic expert, the subdued growth in VAT collection, which increased by a paltry Sh500 million to Sh20.9 billion, means that current GDP growth is mainly being driven by government expenditure, and is yet to translate into increased household incomes, in other words the slow growth of one could only mean that it is compensated by the other. “It could be an indication that growth is not trickling down, or that VATs are not being paid,”
The KRA revenue collection report did not indicate if the tax man is on course to meeting this year’s total annual collection target of Sh610 billion.
While the first quarter results point to the target being missed by 8.3 per cent, this straight line deduction has pitfalls in that some quarters are more significant than others depending on the business cycle of tax payers. Heavy government spending in infrastructure and construction projects across the country are so far providing the single biggest boost to overall economic growth. The weather has also been conducive and agriculture is recovering, pointing to the heavy weighting of the sector, which accounts for a fifth of Kenya’s total GDP.
Improved weather conditions significantly changed the fortunes of the key agricultural sector that employs more than 60 per cent of Kenya’s workforce and lowered the cost of food, estimated to take up 60 per cent of poor household incomes.
Latest economic growth figures by the bureau of statistics put construction as the fastest growing sector of the economy, having expanded by 18 per cent between April and June.
The sector has recorded a huge jump in uptake of loans, where the CBK says net lending grew from Sh43.3 billion to Sh81.7 billion in the year to June, faster than household lending that rose from Sh84.3 billion to Sh118 billion.
Financial intermediation was the second fastest growth sector, enlarging by 16 per cent while the electricity and water sector grew by 14.4 per cent.
Tax collection on petroleum dropped by 5.5 per cent compared to the three months between July and September last year, in a possible indication of reduced consumption of oil for power generation relative to last year.Trade taxes, which mainly comprise of collections from business licenses, recorded the biggest growth of 25.5 per cent indicating that Kenyans could be opening up new businesses hoping to profit from the ongoing economic recovery.
International trade indicators showed marked improvement in the first half of 2010, with volume of merchandise trade increasing by 16.8 per cent as per the bureau of statistics figures.Direct domestic taxes and revenues from fees and licenses increased by 16.3 per cent and nine per cent respectively.
Kenya’s economy grew at the rate of 5.4 per cent in the second quarter of the year, in what the bureau of statistics attributed to a recovery from internal and external shocks that have pulled back growth since 2008.The second quarter growth was realized in an environment of relatively low interest rates, lower inflation and increased production of cheaper hydro-electricity that kept the cost of borrowing in check and eased the pressure on household budgets.

Friday, October 8, 2010

Why It’s Foolish to Weaken shilling to Create Flower Jobs


I keep hearing that the only way we’re going to create jobs in Kenya
agricultural sector is to keep our Shilling weak.

Here’s the theory. As shilling falls relative to foreign currencies
like sterling pound, Euro, everything we export becomes less expensive
to foreign consumers.
So they buy more of our stuff, creating more jobs in Kenya-agricultural sector
. At the same time, everything they make costs us more. So we buy less
from them and more from each other. Again, more jobs here at home.
-That is why imported cars are more expensive than our tea

But using a weak shilling to create Kenyan jobs is foolish, for two reasons.
First, no other country wants to lose jobs because its currency
becomes too high relative to the Ksh.
So a weak shilling policy invites poverty period.
 Everyone loses.
Here’s the other problem. Even if we succeed, a weak shilling makes us
poorer. If we keep imports at around 46 percent of our economy, so a
dropping Shilling is exactly like an extra tax on 46 percent of what
we buy.

It’s no big accomplishment to create jobs by getting poorer.
You want to know how to cut unemployment by half tomorrow?
Get rid of the minimum wage , and make everyone who needs a job work
for a negotiated wages.
And my friend Mr Atwoli  Cotu secretary need to know this that a
two-tier wage contracts are newest lady gaga in labor relations.
Older workers stay at their previous wage; new hires get lower wages
and smaller benefits.
Even a wage freeze becomes a lower wage over time, as inflation eats into it.
Get it? The goal isn’t just more jobs. Answer-It’s more jobs that pay
enough to improve our living standards.
Using a weakening shilling to create more jobs doesn’t get us where we
want to be.

Thursday, October 7, 2010

Young Vs Old

The debate has been here with us for as long as I can remember, and it is not about to stop any time soon.
These are matters to do with LEADERSHIP and who should be at the very top, especially when it comes to matters politics and Kenya in particular.
What I have always failed to understand is the belief that young people can make any good leaders than the old guards. This is because some of the old chaps
got their positions while still young and have never being of any importance to the society.

Friends, I beg not to be misunderstood but all am asking for is for people to be realistic in their arguments which in my opinion should be articulate and precise,
and should not be driven by prejudice, hatred, jealousy and tribal inclination for that matter. I am so passionate about this matter because at no time have I ever imagined throwing out my old mzee(Old man), just because he is old. He is such an integral part of my well being, reason being that I have always run to him for advice on weighty matters that
I would otherwise not be able to handle.

As a young person, I am by no means against the young, but am always left baffled, especially when young professionals, advance their arguments on why
the old guards should be shoved aside.
From my personal experience, and I believe most of you will agree with me, most young people are driven by prejudice, pride, arrogance, just to mention but a few sticky issues.
This forms the basis of my argument that as much as the youth must be given room in matters leadership, some wazee(Old men) must also be there to give guidance to these
vulnerable group.

As young people, we must stand up and prove our worth and mettle. This is because most of the young people in positions of leadership, political leadership for that matter,
have for some reasons proven that they are just a bunch of good for nothing leaders. All they do is run around making lots of noise while doing nothing for their subjects,
to whom they are never answerable to. I am a disappointed young professional because I expected an alternative leadership from my peers who were voted in office but have so far
been a cropper. If we fail even to lead a small group of people (constituency), how then can we be entrusted with the National Leadership????

Just as my old mzee is still and will remain a part of my being, so are the old wazes(men) we are trying to shove aside saying that they are too old to lead.
Since when did your dad become too old to be the man of his boma(Home state)???

In matters Mike Sonko and Makadara, just to illustrate my point, the guy gets elected and even before he gets to parliament, he harasses a fellow young man and warns him to "Chunga maisha unaweza kufa hii Nairobi"(Take good care of your life, you can die in this Nairobi). I have nothing against Sonko but if this is how the young pros. are going to change Kenya, then I'd rather stick with my Old mzee, at least he won,t threaten my life.

If we are serious we want to rise to positions of leadership, let us first of all stop being egocentric towards our peers, rise to the occasion and prove that
we can be entrusted with the delicate responsibility of running this country, and any other positions of leadership for that matter. Other wise we might just have to stick with Wazee(The old) so as to be peaceful and for the continuity of our Nation.